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January
3, 2008
CGX
Energy Files Independent Resource Assessment
Toronto,
Ontario - CGX Energy Inc. (OYL.U - TSX-V) is
pleased to announce that an independent resource assessment (the
"Report") has been completed by Gustavson Associates LLC of
Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A. (Gustavson) for four prospects on the
Company's Corentyne Petroleum Prospecting Licence (PPL) located
offshore Guyana, South America. Using probabilistic analysis, Gustavson
calculated a total best estimate (P50) Prospective Resource in the
four prospects to be 2.7 billion barrels of oil (see description
of Prospective Resource below). The Resource Assessment has been
filed on SEDAR (www.sedar.com) and on the Company's website (www.cgxenergy.com).
Gustavson
was retained by CGX to prepare the Report to estimate the potential
undiscovered oil and gas resources underlying the 9,170 square kilometre
offshore portion of the Corentyne PPL in which CGX has a 100% working
interest. The Report did not review CGX's 25% interest in the 9,742
square kilometre Georgetown PPL, its 100% interest in the 3,968
square kilometre Corentyne Annex nor its 100% interest in the 11,400
square kilometre Pomeroon PPL. The Gustavson resource estimates
were prepared in accordance with the requirements of Canadian National
Instrument 51-101 Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities
("NI 51-101"). Capitalized terms related to resource classifications
used in this press release are based on the definitions and guidelines
in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook ("COGEH").
No
commercial discoveries have been made in the offshore Guyana basin
and hence there have been no reserves found. Historic well
data, regional geology and 2D seismic were reviewed by Gustavson
to prepare a probabilistic Resource Estimate of that portion of
the prospects lying entirely within the Corentyne PPL as shown below.
Prospect
|
Prospective
Oil Resource
Millions
of Barrels |
Low
Estimate
|
Best
Estimate
|
High
Estimate
|
Eagle
Shallow Fan |
153
|
545
|
1,956
|
Wishbone
Shallow Fan |
186
|
439
|
1,043
|
Eagle
Deep West |
379
|
859
|
1,590
|
Eagle
Deep East |
415
|
904
|
1,636
|
Sum
of Prospects |
1,133
|
2,747
|
6,226
|
Prospective
Resources are those quantities of oil and gas estimated to be potentially
recoverable from undiscovered accumulations. If discovered, they
would be technically and economically viable to recover. However,
there is no certainty that the Prospective Resources will be discovered.
In addition, the following mutually exclusive Classification of
Resources were used:
Low
Estimate - This is considered to be a conservative estimate
of the quantity that will actually be recovered from the accumulation.
This term reflects a P90 confidence level where there is a 90% chance
that a successful discovery will be more than this resource estimate.
Best
Estimate - This is considered to be the best estimate
of the quantity that will actually be recovered from the accumulation.
This term is a measure of central tendency of the uncertainty distribution
and in this case reflects a 50% confidence level where the successful
discovery will have a 50% chance of being more than this resource
estimate.
High
Estimate - This is considered to be an optimistic estimate
of the quantity that will actually be recovered from the accumulation.
This term reflects a P10 confidence level where there is a 10% chance
that the successful discovery will be more than this resource estimate
Note
that these distributions do not include consideration of the probability
of success of discovering and producing commercial quantities of
oil, but rather represent the likely distribution of the oil deposits,
if discovered.
As
specified in the COGEH, the Sums of Prospects are arithmetic sums,
and as such do not represent the same probability levels as the
estimates for the individual prospects.
Gustavson
( http://www.gustavson.com/
) is a global consulting firm consisting of geologists, geophysicists,
engineers, land and contracts managers as well as economists and
financial experts who solve problems on all aspects of natural resource
evaluations. This work ranges from the first steps of prospecting
to design and assessment of production facilities. Gustavson has
a 30-year track record of quality consulting to industry and governments
worldwide. Specific studies in South America have included reports
on "The Petroleum Resource Potential of Brazil", "An Overview of
the Geology and Petroleum Resource Potential of Bolivia" and "The
Petroleum and Exploration Potential of Argentina". Gustavson have
also completed reserve estimates for clients such as the International
Finance Corporation, Conoco, Inc., and the Ghana National Petroleum
Company, and conducted economic modelling for private clients as
part of license rounds in offshore Venezuela . Gustavson have also
done extensive work offshore West Africa, including reserves and
resource estimates and economic evaluations in C ô te d'Ivoire
.
Gustavson
has acted independently in the preparation of the Report. Gustavson
and its employees have no direct or indirect ownership in the property
appraised or the area of study described. Ms. Letha Lencioni, P.E.,
signed off on the Report, which has been prepared by her as a Qualified
Reserves Evaluator, with the assistance of others on Gustavson's
staff.
With
respect to Assumptions and Limiting Conditions within the Report,
"Gustavson Associates reserves the right to revise its opinions
of reserves and resources, if new information is deemed sufficiently
credible to do so. The accuracy of any estimate is a function of
available time, data and of geological, engineering and commercial
interpretation and judgment. While the resource estimates presented
herein are believed to be reasonable, they should be viewed with
the understanding that additional analysis or new data may justify
their revision and we reserve the right to make such revision."
Although
a scoping exploration and development economic scenario was presented,
the Report did not attempt to place a value thereon. Scenarios for
field development of the Best Estimate Prospective Resource Cases
were prepared for only two of the four prospects wholly contained
within the Corentyne PPL. These prospects are Eagle Deep West (deep
zone) and Tertiary Turbidite Fans (shallow zone Eagle) and did not
include Eagle Deep East or Wishbone shallow. Four potential outcomes
of exploration are the foundation for determining four possible
scenarios for field development.
| Scenario
1 |
-
oil is discovered in both the Eagle Deep West and Eagle Shallow
Fan |
| Scenario
2 |
-
a discovery only in the Eagle Shallow Fan, with the Eagle
Deep West dry |
| Scenario
3 |
-
a discovery only in the Eagle Deep West, with the Eagle Shallow
dry |
| Scenario
4 |
-
is the possible case in which no oil is discovered |
The
probability of success for each of the possible scenarios is shown
below.
Scenario
|
Exploration
Outcome |
Probability
of Success |
Scenario
1 |
Eagle
Deep West and Tertiary Turbidite Fans |
5%
|
Scenario
2 |
Tertiary
Turbidite Fans |
19%
|
Scenario
3 |
Eagle
Deep West |
15%
|
Scenario
4 |
No
oil Discovery |
61%
|
The
scenarios included the assumptions that " A planned exploration
program will include the acquisition and interpretation of 500 square
kilometres of seismic data during 2008 and the drilling of an exploratory
well in late 2009 or early 2010. If successful, the field will be
delineated with appraisal wells. Field development would start in
October 2011 when a production platform becomes operational. The
first oil would be delivered in October 2012. A floating storage
offloading facility would be leased for the duration of oil production.
The capital requirements and the total number of wells drilled under
each scenario of the exploration and development program for the
Corentyne PPL are summarized in the table below."
Scenario
|
Total
# of Wells |
Capital
Costs ($MM) |
Scenario
1 |
71
|
3,336
|
Scenario
2 |
51
|
2,167
|
Scenario
3 |
16
|
1,116
|
Scenario
4 |
1
|
121
|
The
conclusions from the scenario analysis were the statistical or risked
Expected Value for the development of just two of the prospects
on the Corentyne PPL is $4.8 billion at a 10% discount rate and
$2.4 billion at a 20% discount rate. The range of unrisked net present
values at a 10% discount rate for the four scenarios is from ($104)
million to $23.6 billion. The Expected Value is the combination
of the unrisked best estimate resource net present value and the
associated probability of success. It should be noted that estimated
values disclosed do not represent fair market value.
Expected
* Value of Two of the Prospects on the Corentyne PPL |
Net
Present Value, $MM
|
|
0%
|
10%
|
15%
|
20%
|
Scenario
1 - unrisked |
$53,701
|
$23,641
|
$16,455
|
$11,744
|
Scenario
2 - unrisked |
$18,673
|
$8,522
|
$5,999
|
$4,314
|
Scenario
3 - unrisked |
$30,869
|
$14,248
|
$10,084
|
$7,296
|
Scenario
4 - unrisked |
($121)
|
($104)
|
($97)
|
($91)
|
Expected
Value - risked |
$10,660
|
$4,818
|
$3,377
|
$2,418
|
|
|
|
|
|
*
Expected net present value is the probability-weighted value
of the four possible outcomes. It represents the risk-adjusted
value of the exploration and development of two prospects
on the Corentyne PPL. |
"We're
very happy to have this independent concurrence of our work by Gustavson
Associates" stated Kerry Sully, President and CEO of CGX. "While
waiting for the resolution of the maritime border between Guyana
and Suriname , Warren Workman, our Vice President of Exploration,
worked extensively with Geoseis Inc. to re-interpret the Guyana
Suriname basin offshore Guyana . The most significant lead has been
a series of structural traps in the Upper Cretaceous that we've
called our Eagle Deep targets within our Corentyne PPL. These are
basin opener plays and we look forward to further refinement of
our interpretation with 3D seismic, and testing of our concepts
by drilling as soon as possible thereafter."
CGX
is a Canadian-based oil and gas exploration company focused on exploration
for oil in Guyana , South America. CGX is managed by a team of experienced
oil and gas and finance professionals from Canada, U.S.A. and the
UK. CGX is financed internationally and has thousands of shareholders
worldwide.
For
further information please contact:
Kerry
Sully, President & CEO |
(604)
733-9647 or cgx-sully@shaw.ca |
Denis
Clement, Director |
(416)
364-1909 or dclement@cgxenergy.com |
Charlotte
May, Investor Relations |
(416)
364-3353 or cmay@cgxenergy.com |
This
press release includes "forward looking statements", within
the meaning of applicable securities legislation, which are based
on the opinions and estimates of Management and are subject to a
variety of risks and uncertainties and other factors that could
cause actual events or results to differ materially from those projected
in the forward looking statements. Forward-looking statements are
often, but not always, identified by the use of words such as "seek",
"anticipate", "budget", "plan", "continue",
"estimate", "expect", "forecast",
"may", "will", "project", "predict",
"potential", "targeting", "intend",
"could", "might", "should", "believe"
and similar words suggesting future outcomes or statements regarding
an outlook. Such risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited
to, risks associated with the oil and gas industry (including operational
risks in exploration development and production; delays or changes
in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or
capital expenditures; the uncertainty of reserve estimates; the
uncertainty of estimates and projections in relation to production,
costs and expenses; the uncertainty surrounding the ability of CGX
Energy Inc. to obtain all permits, consents or authorizations required
for its operations and activities; and health safety and environmental
risks), the risk of commodity price and foreign exchange rate fluctuations,
the ability of CGX Energy Inc. to fund the capital and operating
expenses necessary to achieve the business objectives of CGX Energy
Inc., the uncertainty associated with commercial negotiations and
negotiating with foreign governments and risks associated with international
business activities, as well as those risks described in public
disclosure documents filed by CGX Energy Inc. Due to the risks,
uncertainties and assumptions inherent in forward-looking statements,
prospective investors in securities of CGX Energy Inc. should not
place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Statements
in relation to "resources" are deemed to be forward-looking
statements, as they involve the implied assessment, based on certain
estimates and assumptions, that the resources described will e discovered
and can be profitably produced in the future.
Readers
are cautioned that the foregoing lists of risks, uncertainties and
other factors are not exhaustive. The forward-looking statements
contained in this press release are made as of the date hereof and
the Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise
any forward-looking statements contained in this press release or
in any other documents filed with Canadian securities regulatory
authorities, whether as a result of new information, future events
or otherwise, except in accordance with applicable securities laws.
The forward-looking statements contained in this press release are
expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.
THIS
PRESS RELEASE WAS PREPARED BY CGX ENERGY INC., WHICH ACCEPTS THE
RESPONSIBILITY AS TO ITS ACCURACY. THE TSX VENTURE EXCHANGE DOES
NOT ACCEPT RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY OF THIS RELEASE.
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